Changing Geopolitics of the South Caucasus after the Second Karabakh War. Prospect for Regional Cooperation and/or Rivalry

Abstract

This report is from the research project “Changing Geopolitics of the South Caucasus: The Prospect for Regional Cooperation and the Role of the External Actors”, funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The report covers the period July 2021–June 2022 and presents an overarching analysis of the geopolitical changes in the aftermath of the second Karabakh War. The report further provides accounts and perspectives on conflicts, regional collaboration and trade in South Caucasus as seen from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Additionally, the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the initial impact of this war on the region is analyzed. The report concludes with an epilogue presenting updated reflections on the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for the South Caucasus and recent initiatives for peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.